“Renegotiating with supermarkets will become inevitable” warns the Belgian food industry

Belgian food companies are already feeling the impact of the war in Iran. For now, they are not passing on the costs, but renegotiations with supermarket chains will soon be inevitable, warns Fevia, the food industry federation.

Cross-border shopping is shifting

Although the Belgian food industry’s revenue rose by 2.5% last year to 85.1 billion euros—thanks to increasing volumes, as prices fell—some worrying trends are emerging, according to Fevia’s annual economic report.

Domestic demand is stagnating, and the fourth quarter was weak. Cross-border shopping, accounting for 708 million euros in 2025, remains structurally high despite a 5.5% decline. There are shifts in shopping behavior: shoppers are traveling less frequently to the Netherlands, where food inflation is higher, and the increase in excise taxes on soft drinks in France is also having an impact. However, Belgians are now shopping more often in Germany and Luxembourg. The federation finds it concerning that a major player like E.Leclerc now offers home delivery in parts of Wallonia at French prices.

Moreover, the share of Dutch products in Belgian supermarkets has more than doubled since 2010, reaching 16.1% in 2023, the most recent figure available. By now, that percentage is likely even higher, driven by the growth of Dutch supermarket chains in Belgium. During the same period, the share of Belgian products fell from 67.0% to 62.3%.

Cost increases not yet passed on

A survey of Fevia members in the first half of April shows that all companies are already feeling the impact of the war in Iran. Higher costs for transportation, energy, and packaging are the first consequences, as are increases in agricultural raw materials. 93% are experiencing rising production costs, 69% have not yet passed these on, and 31% have done so only partially. This weighs on profitability, investments, and employment. “We are aware of the first requests to renegotiate purchase prices with food retailers,” says CEO Ann Wurman. “That will soon become inevitable.”

Fevia is asking the government not to raise the VAT on food, to lower the packaging levy and excise taxes, to introduce a tax standard for beverages, and to reduce the litter tax. Labor costs must also remain under control, as must energy costs and administrative burdens.

“This isn’t just about us,” says Wurman. “If the food industry falters, the entire chain falters—from agriculture to logistics, distribution, and the hospitality sector.”