Black Friday is off to a good start

Promising economic context

American retailers can get ready for an excellent holiday season, which traditionally starts on Black Friday (next Friday). “A rebounding economy, falling unemployment rate and increasing consumer sentiment all point to solid sales this year“, Zacks Investment Research‘s analysis reads.

According to Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s October poll, consumer trust is at 93.1 points, a sizeable increase compared to the month before (90 points), but even higher than the general consensus (91.2 points).

According to market research firm eMarketer, the holiday sales would hit 885.7 billion dollars (832.73 billion euro) in November and December, up 5.7 % compared to the same period a year ago and once again an improvement over the previous 3.2 % forecast.

America’s largest retail federation, the National Retail Federation, is a tad more cautious: it forecasts a 3.7 % growth to 630.5 billion dollars (excluding cars, gas and restaurant sales), which is 592.79 billion euro. This total would be slightly below that of last year (when turnover grew 4.1 %), but still 50 % as high than the average over the past 10 years, which is 2.5 %

The NRF does predict a strong online sales surge this holiday, up some 6 to 8 % in November and December to 105 billion dollars (98.72 billion euro).