The current price increases are just the beginning: shortages will be impeding many food products in the long run. The food system seems broken. What directions can we take? The new book The Future of Food explores various possibilities.
Ways forward
Does the food industry need a new recipe? Everything points to the fact that the current food system is bursting at the seams. One planet is not enough to feed its growing world population. Farmers barely survive, consumers face higher prices and supermarkets are fighting a disastrous price war, while new business models shake up the retail world.
It is clear that a change is needed, but how can this be achieved? RetailDetail Founder Jorg Snoeck and Editor-in-chief Stefan Van Rompaey have written a book exploring the future of the food industry. They take their readers on a fascinating journey of discovery from urban agriculture to sea farms, from laboratories making cultured meat to hyper-personalised food advice based on artificial intelligence, and from the hybrid supermarket to new, digital platform models.
During this year’s RetailDetail Night, on 25 November, the book will be officially presented at a seminar with talks by Casper, Deliveroo, Hopr and Tiqah, to name a few. Through this link, you can book your tickets. We discussed the main insights with the co-authors.
Race for food
According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, world food prices have reached the highest peak in ten years. But while the big brand manufacturers are announcing sharp price increases, pork prices are plummeting, and many farmers struggle to make ends meet. What is going on?
Jorg Snoeck: “The food supply chain is extremely complex. In the short term, there is the so-called bullwhip effect due to the sudden recovery of the world economy after the Covid slump. However, things will not get any better in the longer term: demand for food will surpass supply due to population growth. Feeding ten billion mouths by 2050 will require a 50 % increase in food production. Increasing farmland is not an option; the consequences of deforestation are disastrous.”
Stefan Van Rompaey: “Add to that the fact that the growing middle class in emerging markets are taking over our lifestyle. This has an enormous impact on the demand for products with a larger ecological footprint: meat, dairy, coffee, chocolate, etc. And food production already accounts for a third of greenhouse gas emissions!”
JS: “Not surprisingly, China is already buying foreign farmland and food production sites to secure its food supply. A global race is looming. We can only escape it by changing the entire food system, from agriculture to production, distribution and consumption. Time for a reset!”
That sounds very concerning. Will the solution arise from advanced technology?
JS: “Partly, yes. The agricultural industry, for example, is transforming into a high-tech, sophisticated industry. Farmers are becoming managers and engineers, drones and artificial intelligence are taking over. Urban agriculture, for example, makes better use of limited space and brings the crops to the consumer. That is more efficient and sustainable.”
SVR: “You see that big producers like Nestlé, PepsiCo, Danone or Unilever are now committed to promoting regenerative agriculture, a form of agriculture that restores the soil rather than exhausting it. They realise that it is no longer enough to merely limit the damage: climate positivity must be the aim. You can do no business on a dead planet; it is as simple as that.”
The plant-based shift
The book claims that consumers will also have to change. Our current consumption pattern seems unsustainable. Will people accept that?
SVR: “This evolution is already in full swing. People are increasingly opting for more local and plant-based foods with a smaller footprint. Meat consumption is past its peak, and flexitarianism is becoming the norm; oat milk is trendy. Retailers and multinationals are seeing the potential and are investing heavily. This is necessary because meat and dairy consumption will continue to rise for a while in emerging markets.
Still, the idea that we should become familiar with new ingredients like seaweed, insects or even cultured meat produced inside bioreactors, will worry many people?
JS: “It is not science fiction, though. Colruyt Group is investing in sea farms. Algae are easy to cultivate in the North Sea, and they are sustainable and healthy. We are already familiar with them, thanks to the popularity of sushi. Insects can be processed as an ingredient, for example, in cakes or dishes. That way, you do not see them. Are you familiar with the Kriket bars? They contain crickets that live off food waste. Another company in which Colruyt has invested, by the way.”
SVR: “Meat from a lab, that is, of course, a different story. The first trial restaurants have already opened, but it will take a few years to scale up production and make it affordable. Moreover, the legislation still has to be adjusted. Nonetheless, the industry is investing tons of money to make this possible. Technologically speaking, it is possible, but eventually, it will be a marketing matter. Let’s face it, ‘cultured meat’ does not sound very appetising…”
Goodbye, one-stop shop
Obesity is a plague. The food industry is often under fire for making us ill. Can the sector also be part of the solution?
SVR: “It will have to. There is awareness, but the individual responsibility of consumers is still too often emphasised. And yet, they are relatively defenceless against the tempting products and persuasive campaigns of the producers. Things are changing – think of the introduction of the Nutri-Score – but ultimately, the government will have to make adjustments.
JG: “It is still very early days, but at the same time, you can see enormously exciting developments in the area of science. Food can support health: I am thinking of fortified foods for the elderly, for example. There are great expectations for personalised nutrition, based on medical analyses, adapted to your DNA in the long run. Imagine: everyone eating their own personal meal from the 3D food printer. People are working on it!
There is criticism about the role of the powerful supermarkets as drivers of price wars. Still, those supermarkets are seeing their position shaken up by new challengers: online, ghost kitchens, meal boxes, quick commerce… Is the model outdated?
SVR: “In any case, the days of the one-stop shop are over. Society is extremely fragmented, with highly diverse shopping needs and an almost infinite number of options and channels at any given time and place. The power has shifted to the cloud, to major platforms. They see food sales, first and foremost, as an interesting source of data that they can monetise in their comprehensive ecosystems. That is a completely different business model. There is just no level playing field.”
JS: “In China, you see how giants such as Alibaba and JD.com are introducing a new generation of connected supermarkets where everything is digitised. Customers shop with their smartphones, and the stores are market, supermarket, convenience store, dark store, express delivery service, ghost kitchen and restaurant all at the same time. Moreover, based on their wealth of big data, these groups control many thousands of connected convenience stores across the country. Walmart is learning from this and is building its own ecosystem in the United States. In Europe, we are lagging behind. We have GDPR: our privacy is assured, but that does not fill your stomach…”
Decision-makers on board
Despite all those inauspicious scenarios, your book does not end pessimistically…
JS: “You must never think in terms of doom. We can turn this around. Our book brings dozens of inspiring stories that show how entrepreneurs and scientists are building a sustainable future for the food industry. It is truly amazing! However, the essential element is the willingness of all players to work together throughout the entire food chain, from farmer to consumer.”
Are the decision-makers in the food sector on board with this story?
JS: “Definitely! We had our book read in advance by some leading CEOs from the international food world. Ahold Delhaize CEO Frans Muller made time to write an epilogue. Carrefour CEO Alexandre Bompard, Jef Colruyt, Olaf Koch (ex-Metro), PepsiCo’s Wim Destoop, Koen Slippens from Sligro, Hein Deprez from Greenyard, Nils van Dam from Milcobel, former Walmart CEO Dirk Van den Berghe and Lieven Vanlommel from Foodmaker also gave us their blessing. We, ourselves, are amazed; it makes us blush. We seem to have come up with the right story at the right time.”
You can order tickets for the book presentation during RetailDetail Night on 25 November through this link. All participants will receive a copy!
The Future of Food – A new recipe for the food sector is published by Lannoo Campus in Belgium and Van Duuren Management in the Netherlands. It is available in a Dutch and an English version. The book is available in bookstores and, for larger volumes, through www.futureofshopping.be.
