Erik Hemmes: “In 2026, the pressure will only increase; there is no margin for error”

The supermarket sector ended 2025 with an unprecedented level of competition. According to food specialist Erik Hemmes, who visits dozens of stores in the Netherlands every week, professionalization continues to increase, as does ruthlessness: “There are no more weak formats left.”

A second Jan Linders?

Competitive pressure in Dutch food retail is structurally high, but according to Erik Hemmes, 2025 showed above all how concentrated the market is. Albert Heijn remains the dominant player. Jumbo follows, but is stagnating somewhat and is mainly looking for ways to regain the small amount of market share it has lost.

Behind them, the market continues to consolidate. Lidl has around 11.5% market share and is increasingly developing into the primary supermarket for customers, Plus has 9.5% after the merger with Coop, and Aldi has around 5.6%. Smaller regional players are increasingly operating through purchasing alliances such as Superunie. Hemmes emphasizes that scale has become crucial: “More and more investment is needed in logistics, IT, AI, and retail media. Many parties are simply too small for that.”

For Hemmes, one of the most striking events of recent years remains the collaboration between Albert Heijn and Jan Linders. This independent chain transferred its approximately 70 stores to Albert Heijn but remained active in operational management. “That is very unusual. It has never been seen before and has not been replicated so far. But 2026 may bring change in that regard.”

After all, it will be a year in which further economies of scale and strategic repositioning seem inevitable. In 2026, retail specialist Erik Hemmes will therefore continue to guide Belgian retailers through the best of the Dutch supermarket landscape with The Buzz.

A quarter of turnover from promotions

In 2025, the share of promotions remained exceptionally high. Hemmes points out that no less than a quarter of sales come from promotions, with peaks of 60 to 70% in categories such as detergents and paper products. “The pricing of items in stores is simply geared towards this.”

This aggressive promotional pressure is leading to increasing tensions with manufacturers. Hemmes is outspokenly critical of temporarily removing brands from the shelves in the event of price disputes. “I think it’s an extremely weak argument – from any organization – to say to the customer: I’m going to throw those products out.” According to him, retailers are not only throwing away money, but also consumer confidence.

Albert Heijn as a reference point

Hemmes does not expect any revolutions before 2026, but he does expect further consolidation. He believes that regional family businesses in particular remain potential takeover candidates. “As far as mergers are concerned, the possibilities are not yet exhausted.” This could even include Jumbo, which, despite internal turmoil, could still be on the acquisition trail: “If you look at their history, they have proven that they can do things simultaneously.” Hemmes even outlines scenarios in which Jumbo and Plus could form a joint purchasing organization, accounting for almost 30% of the market share.

According to Hemmes, the new leadership at Albert Heijn will not cause a break either: “The course is clear and Albert Heijn remains super profitable, which is the most important thing.” The market leader thus remains the benchmark for the entire sector, including in the field of data and retail media. The chain expects to generate up to 1 billion euros in revenue from retail media in five years’ time.

“The frequency with which I, as a customer, am confronted with that media is sometimes a bit on the high side,” Hemmes notes, but competitors are forced to follow suit. “Everyone thinks: if Albert Heijn can do it, then we have to do it too.”

“The profession is only getting tougher”

Hemmes’ conclusion is clear: the Dutch supermarket sector has matured, but it has also become ruthless. “Professionalism in the supermarket world is only increasing.” That makes the profession more difficult, especially for smaller players.

The bar is getting higher in all areas. Whereas a store renovation used to generate 15% extra turnover, for example, 8% is now considered a strong result. “That shows how tense the market is. Running a supermarket is really tough work.” In 2026, that pressure will not diminish. On the contrary, scale, data, and investment power will become increasingly decisive. For those who cannot keep up, there will ultimately be only one option: join or disappear.

What are the most successful Dutch supermarkets? And what can we learn from them? Discover the latest trends, concepts, and innovations in the Dutch market aboard RetailDetail’s luxury The Buzz bus. During this one-day tour on 3 March 2026, you will get an exclusive look behind the scenes of the most leading and innovative supermarket concepts.