How much longer will inflation in Belgian supermarkets continue to fall?

While energy prices are rising sharply, inflation on the grocery shopping cart in Belgium has now been falling for four consecutive months. Among other items, carrots, bananas, olive oil, and ketchup became cheaper last month. Will this trend continue?

A break in the trend after four years of inflation

Since June, Testachats has observed that inflation in Belgian supermarkets has continued to fall, after rising for four years. A basket of more than 3,000 products at Albert Heijn, Carrefour, Colruyt, Delhaize, Aldi, and Lidl fell by 0.41% in June, 0.63% in July, 0.56% in August, and 0.50% in September.

To be clear, there are still product categories that are becoming more expensive: these include alcoholic beverages (+5%), cleaning products (+2%), beer (+9%), lamb (+12%), cod fillets (+9%), and chicken breast as a sandwich filling (+7%), as well as tomatoes (+9%), iceberg lettuce (+7%), and mushrooms (+5%). The top ten price increases also include personal care products such as shampoo (+9%) and deodorant (+7%), according to the consumer organization.

Are rising energy prices having a trickle-down effect?

The product categories that contributed most to the decline in inflation were fruit (-4%), frozen foods (-2%), fish (-2%), vegetables (-2%), and dairy products (-1%). The “oil, vinegar, and sauces” category within grocery items also became 3.5% cheaper on average. For example, carrots (-10%) and Conference pears, lemons, and bananas (-5%) dropped in price. Ketchup (-12%) and olive oil (-6%) also became cheaper.

With household energy bills rising sharply (Testachats estimates an additional cost of nearly 1,000 euros per year), the stabilization of supermarket prices is good news for consumers, but the question is whether this trend will continue for much longer. “There is a high risk that rising energy prices will trickle down to every link in the food supply chain,” says Ortwin Huysmans, spokesperson for Testaankoop. Rising costs are certainly a sensitive issue now that annual negotiations between suppliers and supermarket chains are getting underway with an eye toward price trends for next year.