The digital gold rush is over: shoppers force retail back to basics

E-commerce has stopped being retail’s automatic growth engine. Online spending is sliding back towards parity with stores, while cash-strapped shoppers are choosing price, availability and convenience over digital gimmicks. AI may become the next gatekeeper to the customer, but consumers still do not trust it enough to let it take control.

Price takes control

The days when retailers could rely on e-commerce growth to lift all boats appear to be over. Online now accounts for 51% of global consumer spending, down from 53% last year and well below the pandemic peak of 61% in 2021. VML calls it the arrival of “true omnichannel balance”: physical and digital retail are converging around a roughly fifty-fifty split. For retailers, that changes the growth equation. Online expansion will increasingly come from taking market share rather than simply riding a growing channel.